Monthly Update on the Diamond Market - February 2025

Welcome to our monthly column dedicated to the diamond market. Every month, we analyze the key industry trends, the most significant events, and the dynamics that influence demand, prices, and market strategies. Thanks to authoritative sources such as Rapaport News, IDEX, Ansa, and others, we provide you with a comprehensive and up-to-date overview.

General Overview of the Market

February proved to be relatively stable for the diamond market, with a slower-than-usual pace for the season, but also positive signs in some categories of stones. The RapNet Diamond Index (RAPI™) for 1-carat diamonds reported a slight increase of 0.2%, while 0.30-carat diamonds saw a more significant rise of 3.7%, driven by strong demand for the D-E, IF-VVS1 categories. Diamonds in the 0.50 and 3-carat range also saw increases of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. One of the factors contributing to the stability of prices was the reduction in inventories of cut diamonds, which limited the oversupply in the market. Higher-quality round diamonds (D-G, IF-VS1) performed well, while there was also increased demand for fancy cuts of 2 carats and above.

Key Events of February 2025

• Price Trends for Round and Fancy Cut Diamonds

Certain categories of diamonds have seen price increases, particularly round diamonds between 1.00 and 3.99 carats (D-F, IF-VVS1), which reported increases of up to 3.5%. Fancy cuts ranging from 0.70 to 0.89 carats (D-F, IF-VS1) also saw increases of up to 4.5%. However, the market exhibited some fluctuations: larger fancy diamonds (5.00-5.99 carats, H-N, VVS1-VS2) experienced declines of up to 4%.

• Agreement Between De Beers and Botswana

On February 25, an important agreement was signed between De Beers and the government of Botswana, under which the African state will receive 30% of Debswana's production for the next five years, with this percentage set to rise to 40% in the following five-year period. Debswana, a joint venture between De Beers and the Botswana government, operates some of the world’s most productive diamond mines. De Beers also announced the creation of a development fund for the diamond sector, with an investment of approximately 75 million dollars, aimed at promoting economic diversification and creating new job opportunities in Botswana.

• Traceability Regulations: Delays and New Uncertainties

The European Union has postponed the implementation of new diamond traceability regulations until 2026, while in the United States, the requirement to declare the country of origin for imported polished diamonds has been delayed.

• Hong Kong International Diamond Show 

In the first week of March, the International Diamond, Gem & Pearl Show was inaugurated in Hong Kong. Although Chinese buyer participation was lower than expected, the attendance of international buyers kept the market active, contributing to price stabilization in the early stages of the fair.

• Market Outlook

Despite some positive signs in specific segments, the sector is still facing significant challenges. In addition to weak demand in China, the production of polished diamonds in India continues to be affected by market uncertainties. Many factories are still operating at reduced capacity, and some companies have shifted part of their operations to jewelry manufacturing to compensate for the low demand for loose diamonds.

• Strategies to Counter the Rise of Synthetic Diamonds

The industry is intensifying marketing strategies by focusing on the value of rarity and the uniqueness of natural stones. Brands and manufacturers are developing campaigns that emphasize the geological origin of diamonds, their millennia-long history, and the emotional value tied to their authenticity.

Diamond Industry Facts and Curiosities

• The Karowe Mine: A Source of Invaluable Diamonds

The Canadian mining company Lucara Diamond has recently uncovered exceptional gems at the Karowe mine in Botswana. In less than a month, two diamonds of extraordinary size and quality were extracted: one weighing 2,942 carats (the second-largest ever found) and another weighing 1,094 carats. These discoveries confirm the Karowe mine as one of the most prolific in the world for producing giant diamonds. It is also worth noting that Lucara Diamond uses sophisticated X-ray detection technology capable of locating and recovering exceptionally large diamonds without damaging them, preserving their integrity and value.

• The Chinese Super-Diamond

Recently, a team of Chinese scientists created an artificial "super diamond" that is much harder than natural stones.

What makes this diamond special? Natural diamonds have a cubic crystal structure, with carbon atoms arranged symmetrically. However, there is another variant called lonsdaleite, or "hexagonal diamond," which has a different structure and is even harder than the classic diamond. This form of diamond is found in nature only under extreme conditions, such as inside meteorites that crash to Earth at high speeds.

As a result, lonsdaleite is very rare, and until now, scientists only had tiny and difficult-to-study samples. But Chinese researchers were able to recreate this mineral in the lab by subjecting graphite to extremely high temperatures and pressures. The result? A synthetic diamond with a hardness up to 40% higher than that of a natural diamond and much greater heat resistance.

This innovation could revolutionize several industries, from ultra-resistant materials for the aerospace sector to precision cutting tools, as well as electronic components capable of withstanding extreme conditions.

• A Real Feud for a Dream Diamond!

When it comes to legendary diamonds, it's not uncommon for intrigue and battles to lurk behind their brilliance. Such is the case with the Idol’s Eye, a magnificent 70.21-carat blue diamond, which has recently sparked a dispute among members of the Qatari royal family.

Sheikh Hamad bin Abdullah Al Thani claimed the right to purchase the Idol’s Eye for £10 million, but the family of the late owner didn't give in easily.

The case ended up in court, and on February 13, 2025, the High Court in London ruled in favor of the heirs, stating that the right of first refusal could not be applied. The reason? While the family had requested evaluations from Christie’s and Sotheby’s, it was only to gauge the market, with no real intention of selling.

If Sheikh Hamad expected to acquire the Idol’s Eye at a "bargain" price, he’ll have to reconsider: experts predict the diamond could fetch up to $35 million at auction, especially if it were cut to improve its hue and become a fancy light blue.

One thing is certain: the Idol’s Eye continues to make headlines, not only for its beauty but also for the power struggles it triggers. And who knows, perhaps the next owner will have to fight even harder to keep it in their hands!

Insight of the Month:

The Most Spectacular Diamond Heists of the Last 50 Years

The world of diamonds is not only about luxury and glamour but also about spectacular heists worthy of Hollywood action films. Some thieves have managed to pull off robberies that left the world in awe, devising brilliant plans and daring escapes. But how many of them got away with it? Here are the boldest heists of the last 50 years.

• 2003 – The Heist of the Century: The Robbery at the Antwerp World Diamond Center

In the heart of Antwerp, the world capital of diamonds, a group of thieves led by Italian Leonardo Notarbartolo stole over $100 million worth of diamonds and jewelry from more than 100 safe deposit boxes in Europe's most secure vault. They neutralized alarms, cameras, and electronic locks with incredible precision. The robbery was discovered only the following Monday, by which time the thieves had already disappeared. However, their luck didn't last long: Notarbartolo was arrested soon after, betrayed by an envelope full of evidence left in a forest nearby. Nevertheless, the stolen goods were never recovered...

• 2009 – The $65 Million Robbery at Graff Diamonds in London

• 2013 – The Record Heist at the Carlton Hotel in Cannes

During a diamond exhibition at the luxurious Carlton Hotel, a masked man entered and stole jewelry worth over $136 million. The thief acted alone, without firing a shot, with impressive calmness. Incredibly, he was never arrested, and the diamonds were never recovered.

• 2008 – The Robbery at the Harry Winston Boutique in Paris

• 2013 – The Heist at the Cannes Film Festival

Like something out of a spy movie, a lone thief stole jewelry worth over $100 million from a safe in a luxury hotel during the Cannes Film Festival. The heist took place in broad daylight, without leaving any obvious traces. To this day, the perpetrator has never been identified.

• The Pink Panthers: The Most Dangerous Gang in the World

Conclusions

The diamond market in February 2025 showed weak signs of recovery amid ongoing challenges. The agreement between De Beers and Botswana could redefine industry dynamics, while the growing competition from synthetic diamonds is pushing producers to develop new strategies to enhance the allure and exclusivity of natural stones. The future remains uncertain, but as always, the world of diamonds continues to offer surprises and fascinating stories.

Stay tuned for more updates and insights into the captivating world of diamonds!