Diamond Market: March 2026

Welcome to our monthly column dedicated to the diamond market . Each month, we analyze the main global trends, the most significant events, and the dynamics that influence demand, prices, and commercial strategies. Thanks to authoritative sources such as Rapaport News, IDEX, and other specialized channels, we provide you with an up-to-date, accurate, and reliable overview.

General Trend

In March 2026, the diamond market continued to be heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions and a widespread climate of uncertainty. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which began at the end of February, had a direct impact on several key international trading hubs.

In particular, trading activity in Israel and Dubai slowed significantly due to Iranian missile attacks, with immediate effects on the flow of both rough and polished diamonds. Some auction houses and industry operators also temporarily shifted their activities to other trading centers, including Antwerp, which during this period continued to offer greater operational continuity, albeit within an overall cautious environment.

This situation is further compounded by ongoing uncertainties related to international trade policies. U.S. tariffs on Indian goods, although reduced compared to previous months, remain a point of concern for market participants, especially given India’s central role in global diamond manufacturing.

From a demand perspective, the market continues to show clear polarization. Larger diamonds, particularly those above 2 carats, maintain solid demand and limited availability, especially in elongated fancy shapes. In contrast, smaller stones remain more exposed to weaker demand and increasing competition from synthetic diamonds.

Overall, the trend observed in previous months is confirmed: a selective market where quality, size, and rarity remain the key factors supporting value.

Price trends

During March, polished diamond prices showed an overall negative trend, although with significant differences across categories. According to the RapNet Diamond Index (RAPI™), 1-carat round diamonds (D–H, IF–VS2) declined by 1.7%. Smaller stones showed more pronounced weakness: 0.30-carat diamonds fell by 1.1%, while 0.50-carat stones dropped by 3.5%. The decline was more limited for 3-carat diamonds, at 0.5%

A similar picture emerges from other market indicators, which point to a slight decrease in average prices in March compared to February, confirming a downward trend already observed in the second half of 2025.

Price list revisions during the month mainly affected round diamonds up to 1.99 carats and some smaller fancy shapes, helping to rebalance the market after the dynamics of previous months.

At the same time, the rough diamond market continues to show a different dynamic. Larger stones, particularly those above 5 carats, remain in high demand against limited availability, leading to upward pressure on prices. This dynamic directly impacts producers’ margins, which are already under pressure in a context of selective demand.

Overall, March confirms a fragmented market: while small and mid-sized stones continue to be affected by weak demand, larger diamonds maintain greater stability, supported by stronger demand and more limited supply.

Reflections from the World of Diamonds

“The Godfather” Watch: when high watchmaking and diamonds meet cinema

Among the most striking creations of March 2026 is the Opera Godfather Baguette by Jacob & Co., a timepiece that brings together high watchmaking, diamonds, and cinematic culture.

Crafted in 18-carat rose gold and priced at around 1.2 million dollars, the watch is set with nearly 1,100 diamonds and incorporates an extremely complex mechanism. Inside, it features a miniature music box that plays the iconic score by Nino Rota from The Godfather, accompanied by a small rotating figure of Don Vito Corleone.

The mechanism, which includes a tourbillon and animated elements, rotates on itself, creating a visually and mechanically striking effect.

Beyond its spectacular appearance, this type of creation reflects an increasingly evident trend in the luxury segment: the pursuit of unique pieces that combine craftsmanship, technical innovation, and storytelling value.

In a context where the market is becoming increasingly selective, it is precisely these elements, uniqueness, complexity, and the ability to tell a story, that determine the true positioning of a high-end object.

What really happens when a hub stops

March offered an interesting perspective to better understand a less visible aspect of the diamond market: what happens when one of the main trading hubs suddenly comes to a halt.

Following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, with attacks directly affecting both Israel and the UAE, trading activities across some of the key international hubs experienced a sharp slowdown.

To understand the impact of these dynamics, it is useful to recall the role that hubs such as Tel Aviv and Dubai play within the supply chain. Tel Aviv is one of the world’s leading centers for the trade of polished diamonds, with a strong specialization in high-quality stones. Dubai, on the other hand, has become in recent years a strategic hub for both rough diamond trading and international redistribution, thanks to its geographic position and its central role in flows between Africa, India, and Europe.

When one of these hubs slows down or comes to a halt, even temporarily, the effect quickly spreads across the entire market: transactions are postponed, the flow of goods is reorganized, and part of the activity shifts to other centers, such as Antwerp.

These are dynamics that are not very visible to outside observers, but they have a real impact on market liquidity and sales timelines. In a global and highly interconnected sector, even external factors such as geopolitical tensions can directly influence opportunities and operational strategies.

Conclusions

March 2026 confirms a diamond market increasingly influenced by external factors, where geopolitical dynamics, raw material availability, and shifts in demand coexist and intertwine.

International tensions have highlighted how interconnected the sector is, while price trends continue to reflect clear selectivity: smaller stones remain under pressure, while larger, high-quality diamonds maintain a stronger position. At the same time, the luxury segment continues to reward uniqueness, complexity, and storytelling value, as demonstrated by the most exclusive creations of the month.

In such a complex environment, understanding the true value of a gemstone requires in-depth analysis that takes into account not only its technical characteristics, but also market timing and global dynamics.

Auctentic offers independent gemological evaluations and strategic advisory to support you at every stage of the process, with the clarity and discretion needed to make informed decisions. Contact us for a professional evaluation and discover the true value of your diamonds.

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